Retail Forecasts Signal Slight Growth for 2025 Holiday Season

By Nick Rigitano 
NSGA Director of Insights and Analysis 

As the 2025 holiday season is quickly approaching, NSGA has been keeping note of various holiday sales growth forecasts released by multiple organizations. The overall sentiment from the retail holiday forecasts released thus far is slight growth expected for the upcoming season with the largest gains still being driven by e-commerce. 

Deloitte 

According to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast, holiday retail sales (November 2025–January 2026) are likely to increase between 2.9 and 3.4 percent compared to last year. This range would represent a smaller increase than last year’s holiday sales growth of 4.2 percent, which finished above last year’s forecasted range of 2.3 and 3.3 percent. As in past years, e-commerce is expected to once again play a big role this holiday season, forecasted to grow between 7 and 9 percent.  

“We anticipate disposable personal income (DPI), a key driver of retail sales, to grow between 3.1% to 5.4% this holiday season. Our research indicates that DPI is a sound predictor of retail sales and e-commerce sales. Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending,” said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. “While elevated inflation will likely weigh on the volume of retail sales growth, it will nevertheless be a tailwind for the dollar value spent on retail purchases in the holiday season.” 

Mastercard 

Mastercard is anticipating US retail sales to grow 3.6 percent this holiday season (November 1–December 24), according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures overall retail sales across all payment types. 

As has been the norm in today’s omnichannel world, consumers are expected to shop across all channels with e-commerce forecasted to increase 7.9 percent and in-store sales to increase 2.3 percent. But inflation is expected to be a larger contributor to sales growth, as opposed to actual sales volume compared to last year, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is not yet clear. Some retailers betting on sales volume may choose to eat the tariff increases, but there are signs that others will be passing them along.  

Bain & Company 

Similarly, Bain & Company is forecasting healthy but subaverage growth of 4 percent in US retail sales this holiday season (November and December only), slightly below the 10-year average growth rate of +5.2 percent. The forecast calls for non-store sales (e-commerce and mail order) to grow by 7.0 percent while in-store sales will increase by 2.75 percent. 

ICSC 

The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) is expecting retail sales to grow between 3.5 and 4.0 percent year-over-year this holiday season (November and December), slightly above last year’s predicted range of 3.0 and 3.5 percent. Regarding purchase channels, ICSC expects 92 percent of holiday shoppers to spend in-store, led by younger generations. Consumers will once again take advantage of omnichannel shopping with 52 percent of holiday shoppers planning to utilize buy-online, pickup-in-store (BOPIS) options. In a sign of opportunity for emerging retailers, 80 percent of consumers are open to visiting new stores or trying new brands. 

Canadian Outlook 

As for Canadian retailers, Mastercard is expecting overall growth at 2.8 percent year-over-year with 5.3 percent growth online versus 2.5 percent in-store. 

According to PwC Canada, 64 percent of Canadian consumers plan to visit stores in person at the purchasing stage of their holiday shopping. When shopping starts is consistent with last year, with nearly one-third (32%) intending to do most of their shopping across the Black Friday weekend (including Cyber Monday). However, there’s a 9 percent drop among those planning to shop between Thanksgiving and Black Friday compared to 2024. The firm presumes many of these shoppers are intending to take advantage of promotions running from Black Friday onwards this year. 

NSGA will add more retail forecast information as it becomes available.