Retail Forecasts: Slight Growth for the Upcoming Holiday Season 

By Nick Rigitano 
NSGA Director of Insights and Analysis 

DOWNERS GROVE, ILLINOIS (October 16, 2024) – The holiday season is quickly approaching and the National Sporting Goods Association (NSGA) has been keeping note of various 2024 holiday sales growth forecasts released by multiple organizations. The overall sentiment from the retail holiday forecasts released as of mid-October shows slight growth expected for the upcoming season with the largest gains driven by e-commerce. 

National Retail Federation (NRF)

The National Retail Federation (NRF) is forecasting holiday spending (November and December) to grow between 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent compared to 2023. This forecast compares slightly lower to last year’s holiday forecast of 3-4 percent and actual increase of 3.9 percent (2023 vs. 2022). Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the figure, are expected to remain strong, increasing between 8 percent and 9 percent. Last year non-store sales rose 10.7 percent vs. 2022. 

“We remain optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households will spend more cautiously.”  

International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)

The ICSC is expecting retail sales to grow between 3.0 and 3.5 percent year-over-year this holiday season (November and December). On average, holiday shoppers plan to spend $706 on gifts and related items – the most since 2018. Regarding purchase channels, the ICSC expects consumers once again to take advantage of omnichannel shopping with 92 percent of holiday shoppers planning to shop in-store and nearly all those shoppers planning to buy online from the same retailer’s website of the store they visited.

Deloitte

According to Deloitte’s annual forecast, holiday retail sales (November 2024–January 2025) are likely to increase between 2.3 and 3.3 percent compared to last year. This range would represent a smaller increase from last year’s holiday sales growth. Last year’s forecasted range was of 3.5-4.6 percent. As in past years, e-commerce is expected to once again play a big role this holiday season, forecasted to grow between 7 and 9 percent. 

“Although the pace of increase in holiday sales will be slower than last year, we expect that healthy growth in disposable personal income (DPI), combined with a steady labor market, will support a solid holiday sales season,” said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. 

Mastercard

Mastercard anticipates US retail sales to grow 3.2 percent this holiday season (November 1–December 24), according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures overall retail sales across all payment types. As has been the norm in today’s omnichannel world, consumers are expected to shop across all channels with e-commerce forecasted to increase 7.1 percent and in-store sales to increase 2 percent. 

Mastercard also points out the comparatively shorter holiday season, with Black Friday falling later in November this year than compared to last, could ultimately lead to some volatility with year-over-year comparisons. 

Bain & Company

Bain & Company is forecasting subaverage growth of 3 percent in US retail sales this holiday season (November and December only), slightly below the 10-year average growth rate of +5.2 percent. The forecast calls for non-store sales (e-commerce and mail order) to grow by 9.5 percent while in-store sales will increase by just 0.5 percent.

Retail Council of Canada

As for Canadian retailers, the holiday outlook appears to be very positive. According to the Retail Council of Canada’s annual Holiday Shopping Survey, Canadians are likely to spend $972 on average this holiday season, 8 percent higher than the amount they planned to spend last season. However, most Canadians (90%) are approaching the season with a careful eye on their budgets, seeking out deals in the face of ongoing inflation concerns. Furthermore, due to inflation, 71 percent of Canadians said they were adapting their shopping habits, prioritizing sales, budgets, and early planning and buying only when they find the best deals. Among the retail channels shoppers will turn to, in-store is the preferred shopping channel among 62 percent of Canadians while 38 percent prefer online for convenience and deals.

EDITOR’S NOTE: This story will be updated as more retail forecasts are released. The Retail Council of Canada information was added November 1 and the ICSC information was added October 17. Check back to the NSGA website or the NSGA Scoreboard e-newsletter for updates.