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By Nick Rigitano
NSGA Director of Insights and Analysis
This story was updated October 21, 2026 with new information from the National Retail Federation.
DOWNERS GROVE, ILLINOIS (October 13, 2026) – With the holiday season quickly approaching, NSGA is keeping tabs on several holiday sales growth forecasts from multiple organizations. The overall sentiment from the retail holiday forecasts released as of early October is moderate growth expected for the upcoming season with the largest gains still being driven by e-commerce.
Deloitte
According to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast, holiday retail sales (Nov. 2026–Jan. 2027) are likely to increase between 4.0 and 4.8 percent compared to last year. This range would represent a similar increase to last year’s holiday sales growth of 4.1 percent, which finished above last year’s forecasted range of 2.9 and 3.4 percent.
As has been the trend in recent years, e-commerce is expected to play a big role this holiday season, forecasted to grow between 7.5 and 8.4 percent.
“Disposable personal income (DPI) remains an important input to our holiday retail forecast,” said Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights. “We project DPI to grow between 4.5% to 5.2% during the holiday season, which we believe to be a strong predictor of retail and e-commerce sales.
“The continued growth in e-commerce sales is also expected to be aided by consumers’ ongoing use of digital tools to research, compare and complete purchases across all categories.”
Mastercard
Mastercard is anticipating US retail sales to grow 5.5 percent this holiday season (Nov. 1–Dec. 24), according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures overall retail sales across all payment types. For reference, an increase of 5.5 percent would mark the strongest holiday growth since 2022.
As has been the norm in today’s omnichannel world, consumers are expected to shop across all channels with e-commerce forecasted to increase 11 percent and in-store sales to increase 3.6 percent, which would be the strongest physical retail growth in 4 years.
These forecasts are supported by a strong job market, which supports wage growth and rising household wealth, helping to sustain solid spending all year. Prices will also play a factor as Mastercard estimates about half the growth in spending will be caused by higher prices, a pattern seen across recent holiday seasons.
National Retail Federation
The National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday spending (November and December) to grow 4.2 percent compared to 2025. This forecast compares to the upper end of last year’s holiday forecast of 3.7-4.2 percent and higher than the actual increase of 3.1 percent (2025 vs. 2024).
“This year’s forecast reflects our confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season even as they remain mindful of their budgets,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Retailers are prepared to meet that demand with competitive prices, value and choices for every budget.”
In addition to releasing the forecast, the organization provided a preview of how consumers are expected to shop this year. According to NRF’s Annual Consumer Survey, 43 percent of holiday shoppers plan to start browsing and buying before November, on par with 42 percent from last year. Among those starting early, 50 percent do so to spread out their holiday shopping budgets, while 37 percent say the prices and promotions are too good to pass up.
Affordability is also top of mind for those waiting until November to start their shopping, with 46 percent of these shoppers saying they plan to wait until November and December because it is when they find the best prices and promotions. Even though many consumers start their holiday shopping early, 64 percent said they are likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do the majority of their shopping, in line with 63 percent last year.
Bain & Company
Similarly, Bain & Company is forecasting healthy growth of 4.5 percent in US retail sales this holiday season (November and December only), well ahead of the 3.5 percent rise recorded in the 2025 holiday season. The forecast calls for non-store sales (e-commerce and mail order) to grow by 9 percent while in-store sales will increase by 2.5 percent.
International Council of Shopping Centers
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) is expecting retail sales to grow between 4.3 and 4.9 percent year-over-year this holiday season (November & December), above last year’s predicted range of 3.5 and 4.0 percent. According to the survey, 88 percent of U.S. adults (approximately 237 million people) plan to purchase holiday gifts and other holiday-related items this season, with 78% planning to spend the same or more than last year.
The top 10% of shoppers anticipate spending five times more than the average consumer, underscoring the outsized influence a small group of high-spending shoppers can have on holiday sales.
“Consumers have made it clear they are willing to make sacrifices for the things that matter to them this holiday season, but they are making careful decisions about when and where they spend to make that money go further,” said Tom McGee, President and CEO of ICSC. “Shoppers remain resilient, but they’re more discerning and value-conscious; competitive prices, convenient shopping options, and experiences that bring people together are non-negotiable for retailers to attract shoppers and give them reasons to return throughout the season.”
NOTE: For updates on additional holiday retail sales forecasts as they are released, be sure to stay tuned to the weekly NSGA Scoreboard e-newsletter.
